Gov. Tim Walz ended the suspense last week and made it official that he’ll seek a third term as Minnesota’s chief executive.
The decision came after much speculation among the state’s political insiders and aficionados, who pondered numerous possibilities and scenarios related to the 2026 election.
Some thought Walz would bypass a third term, either to instead run for president or seek a seat in the U.S. Senate, and there were even rumors that U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar may come home to run for governor or that other big DFL names - including Attorney Gen. Keith Ellison or Secretary of State Steve Simon - might seek the governor’s seat.
By seeking re-election, Walz stopped some of the political musical chairs that were sure to occur, although 2026 is already shaping up to be an interesting year.
In going for a third term, Walz faces some challenges that weren’t there in 2018 or 2022, when he won comfortably.
Like it or not, Walz took some political hits in a failed run for vice president, and that defeat has some smelling blood in the political waters.
A poll commissioned by Twin Cities media giant KSTP has only fanned those flames.
The poll showed that Minnesota voters gave the governor his lowest marks yet, with only 47 percent of those polled approving of Walz’s job as governor and an equal amount saying they disapprove. Another six percent were undecided.
When asked whether Walz should seek a third term, 43 percent said they would prefer a different DFL candidate and only 42 percent said Walz should run.
The poll also showed tanking support for the governor in southern Minnesota, an area that he used to represent in Congress.
Those kinds of numbers make for challenging headwinds for Walz, and so too does history.
In recent history, Minnesota has not been kind to governors in search of a third term.
Iron Range native Rudy Perpich was denied a third term when he ran in 1990, while former Gov. Tim Pawlenty’s attempt at a political comeback - and a third term in St. Paul - was ended by Republican primary voters in 2018.
The fraud scandals that have dogged state government pose another obstacle, and so too do the state’s budget troubles.
State budget surpluses that existed only a few short years ago have withered away and deficits loom.
While factors beyond Walz’s control certainly play a role in the current budget mess, the bottom line is the shift has occurred under the incumbent’s watch and he’s sure to catch some of the blame.
It’s far too early to write Walz’s political obituary. He still has the power both of incumbency and history. After all, Pawlenty was the last Republican to win statewide office and that was nearly 20 years ago.
Republicans have yet to show they can put up a candidate who can not only win in rural areas, but cut into the DFL’s historic margins in the Twin Cities metropolitan area.
If they’re able to find that candidate, we could see a shift in gubernatorial party control for the first time in a decade and a half.
Stay tuned. Election year in Minnesota promises to be very, very interesting.
